The New View of Global Change Dynamics

By 2030, the global population will have grown by another billion to 8.5 billion people. This development is regionally asymmetrical: birth rates in Africa, for example, far exceed the population replacement level.  Almost half of the world's population growth between now and 2030 will take place in Africa. The population of Europe, by contrast, is shrinking. On the other hand, with the exception of Africa, most regions throughout the world are affected by population ageing. One of the main developments concomitant with the population explosion is the expansion of urban living space. The speed and extent of urbanisation in many Asian and African states is unprecedented. Burgeoning migration waves throughout the world are also contributing to increasing urban sprawl.

The environment is suffering more and more from the subsequent costs of the human lifestyle. No trend reversal has yet been achieved in greenhouse gas emissions. The main emitters are power stations, industrial plants, traffic systems and agriculture. Surface and water temperatures are increasing as a result of anthropogenic climate change, in addition to which the polar caps are starting to melt, sea level is rising and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent. Noise and light pollution are also increasing steadily, whilst rubbish piles are growing and soils are being contaminated. At the same time, a flood of laws, regulations and initiatives are attempting to prevent human beings from destroying the basis of their own continued existence.

The world is becoming less equitable. Whilst inequalities between states are diminishing at the global level, they are increasing within specific regions and countries. The expected future economic growth in Europe, North America and China will almost exclusively benefit the more affluent sectors of these societies. More and more families are facing poverty, social exclusion and material deprivation. This is in particular true of rural areas that are in danger of being completely cut off from the rapid developments in urban centres.  The interactions between different aspects of inequality lead to a significant potential for social conflict. This finds expression in political radicalisation, terrorist actions and politically motivated violence.

The political world order is currently undergoing a transition towards multipolarity and the unilateral “pax” americana is disintegrating. The geopolitical situation is currently dominated by volatility, instability and asymmetric conflicts. The influence of major emerging economies such as India and especially China, but also smaller states, regional powers and non-state actors, is increasing, resulting in new distribution struggles for power and resources. A new system contest is on the horizon between liberal market economic democracies on the one side and authoritarian state controlled capitalist systems on the other. At the same time, calls for a strong, even authoritarian state are being countered by the slow but steady withdrawal of state-funded social safety nets on the part of many states.

The proportion of the world's population living in cities will increase from the current 54% to 60% by 2030. In emerging and developing economies, in particular, rapid urbanisation is often unmanaged resulting in burgeoning urban sprawl. Meanwhile, western cities are facing the challenge of renovating their ageing, sometimes crumbling, infrastructures, a task whose accomplishment will function as an acid test for many towns and cities. The importance of adaptive infrastructural systems, designed to react to dynamically changing challenges and requirements, is increasing in the context of urban infrastructure expansion as are digital infrastructures, designed to increase the efficiency and public accessibility of urban systems.

Digital technologies continue to dominate all areas of life, whereby the dynamics of change will continue to increase up to 2030. Driven by ever faster data connectivity, the miniaturisation of sensors and processors as well as devices that are intuitive to operate and offer novel application functionality, the networking of objects is penetrating into every corner of daily life. Within the emerging “internet of things” (IoT), physical objects are able to communicate and interact with their surroundings. Developments in the field of artificial intelligence have made it possible to analyse enormous amounts of data in real time thus enabling powerful solutions based on automation. Robots and machines are able to discover optimised solutions to complex problems without the need for human intervention. However, internetworking involves a certain amount of risk: cybercriminals are increasingly training their sights on critical infrastructure.

The 21st century will be dominated by power shifts at different levels, initially between states and regions, mostly in a west to east direction – the resurrection of Asia in its former glory. Global welfare will also be subjected to a decentralising distribution. A global middle class will emerge, albeit characterised by strong regional variations. In addition, political power will successively move from central control organisations to smaller organisational units — regions, municipalities, and non-state institutions. Ultimately, the training-intensive requirements of the knowledge and information society will be conducive to a progressive power transfer from men to women. 

The coming decades will be heavily influenced by developments in bio and nanotechnology, the neuro and materials sciences and medical engineering. An increasing profound understanding of the laws of life is enabling man to intervene creatively in natural process in general and in the development of biological organisms in particular, both at the atomic and sub-atomic levels, but also at the scale of networked macro systems. This is altering our understanding of life in profound ways. Intelligent designs are based on natural systems and processes. The bio-technical transformation involves a number of concomitant risks as, by artificially intervening at all levels of the system with increasing frequency, mankind is entering terra incognita.

The divergence between people's individual lifeworlds will increase by 2030. Gender roles will no longer be accepted as being predetermined, and will increasingly be defined by individuals themselves; new forms of individuality will be established based on complex identity formation processes and modified body images; linear biographies will morph into complex, dynamic multigraphs. Patterns of consumption, which are motivated by multiple factors such as the increasing demand for personalised products, a deeper integration of customers in product development processes, increasing sensitisation to sustainable consumption and a transition from ownership to sharing platforms in certain product categories, will also become increasing differentiated.

Whether its organisational forms, work equipment, operational profiles or competency requirements – a fundamental change is recognisably taking place in the work environment at levels. Work is being organised on a more flexible basis, both spatially and chronologically, and companies are attempting to dissolve traditional silos in favour of more open structures. Workers are enjoying the support of digital assistant systems, exoskeletons are reducing the strain of physical tasks, artificial Intelligence and robotics are giving rise to novel forms of collaboration and automation. The time contingencies for more complex human activities will increase in future, but workers will be expected to accept more personal responsibility and self-organisation. In addition, they will be required to work continuously on the ongoing development of their personal skills profiles. At the same time, workforces will become more diversified, which will present new challenges for both managers and staff.

Throughout the world, companies and economies are experiencing increasingly volatile development dynamics. Several factors are contributing to this development. On the one hand, mutual global dependencies have increased at the same pace as the flows of international capital and goods have burgeoned in the wake of globalisation. The risk of contagion in times of crises has also increased and local events can have global consequences. In addition, the incidence rate of crises of an international character is also increasing, which deprives national economies of the ability ever to achieve full recovery. Increasing international inequalities further complicate the situation. Increasingly, a reliable monetary, economic and fiscal policy is becoming a thing of the past. Industry structures are changing under the influence of disruptive innovations. Speculative investment activities are also destabilising the global economic system.

Businesses are increasingly being confronted with dynamically changing commercial environments. The technical transition is accompanied by cross-sectoral innovations at the business model and organisational process levels. Innovations arise at the interfaces of formerly separate sectors, whose boundaries are becoming increasingly fuzzy as a result of integrated products and services. Cross-sectoral value creation networks and structures are emerging, as exemplified by the platform economy or collaborative business operations. At the same time, robotics, 3D printing and other production technologies are being revolutionised under the motto “Industry 4.0”. Highly flexible production processes and integrated corporate structures are being created. Business objectives are also changing and are increasingly being extended to include positive external effects on the environment and society as a whole.